Mizuho cuts Circle price target, says AI assistants pose marked risk to stablecoin revenue

Mizuho said on October 26, 2026 that AI personal assistants pose “a marked risk” to Circle’s medium-term revenue, The Block reported. The bank kept its underperform rating on the stablecoin issuer and lowered its price target.

Mizuho ran a simulation asking AI agents, including one called Muse, where to hold cash. The agents tended to recommend moving USDC into higher-yielding, FDIC-insured fiat options such as SoFi savings accounts. Even users who wanted to stay in crypto were pointed to other platforms rather than holding USDC in Circle’s own ecosystem.

The bank estimates wider adoption of AI agents could shrink USDC’s market capitalization by $4 billion to $9 billion and cut Circle’s medium-term reserve revenue by 10% to 20%. In a faster-adoption scenario, about $7 billion moves into fiat products and $2 billion into higher-yielding stablecoins, and reserve revenue falls 18%. Mizuho now forecasts 2027 average USDC circulation of $101 billion, down from $108 billion, and reserve revenue of $4.1 billion, down from $4.3 billion. The figures are projections, not measured outflows.

Circle earns almost all of its revenue from interest on USDC reserves, and USDC does not pay holders yield on Circle’s own platform. In the second quarter of 2026, about 17% of USDC sat on Circle’s platform, about 30% on Coinbase and about 53% elsewhere, according to Mizuho figures reported by The Block.